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VSK Århus vs Middelfart — 3. Division 2021

VSK Århus
VSK Århus
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Middelfart
Middelfart
5/27/20233. Division3. Division · Promotion Group - 7Vejlby Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

VSK Århus28%
×Draw24%
Middelfart48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VSK Århus
1.23
Middelfart
1.68

Middelfart creates 37% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 16 away

creates per match

VSK Århus
1.89
Middelfart
2.19

allows per match

VSK Århus
1.17
Middelfart
0.56

finishing

VSK Århus+0.00on par
Middelfart+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VSK Århus ↓

Middelfart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

VSK Århus or draw
52%
VSK Århus or Middelfart
76%
Draw or Middelfart
72%

Winning margin

VSK Århus wins by 2+
12%
Middelfart wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

VSK Århus 1+ goals
71%
VSK Århus 2+ goals
35%
VSK Århus 3+ goals
13%
Middelfart 1+ goals
81%
Middelfart 2+ goals
50%
Middelfart 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

VSK Århus (draw refunded)
37%
Middelfart (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VSK Århus at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

Middelfart away — creates 2.19, concedes 0.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VSK Århus attack 1.89 + Middelfart defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.23

Middelfart attack 2.19 + VSK Århus defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

VSK Århus scores more
28%
level
24%
Middelfart scores more
48%

Middelfart at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Middelfart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division: VSK Århus 1–2 Middelfart

Middelfart beat VSK Århus 2-1 in 3. Division on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Vejlby Stadion in Risskov.