Middelfart 2–1 VSK Århus: Result & Stats

Middelfart

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

VSK Århus

9/10/2022

3. Division · Round 6Middelfart Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Middelfart46%

×Draw26%

VSK Århus28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddelfartExpected goals in this matchVSK Århus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.09

Middelfart

1.46

VSK Århus

1.09

Middelfart creates 34% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 64 away

1.56

creates per match

1.50

0.69

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Middelfart

1.56

VSK Århus

1.50

allows per match

Middelfart

0.69

VSK Århus

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Middelfart+0.00on par

VSK Århus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middelfart ↓

VSK Århus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Middelfart or draw

72%

Middelfart or VSK Århus

74%

Draw or VSK Århus

54%

Winning margin

Middelfart wins by 2+

22%

VSK Århus wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Middelfart 1+ goals

77%

Middelfart 2+ goals

43%

Middelfart 3+ goals

18%

VSK Århus 1+ goals

66%

VSK Århus 2+ goals

30%

VSK Århus 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Middelfart (draw refunded)

62%

VSK Århus (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middelfart at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

VSK Århus away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.36 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middelfart attack 1.56 + VSK Århus defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.46

VSK Århus attack 1.50 + Middelfart defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Middelfart scores more

46%

level

26%

VSK Århus scores more

28%

Middelfart at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Middelfart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff