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VSK Århus vs Karlslunde — 3. Division 2021

VSK Århus
VSK Århus
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Karlslunde
Karlslunde
9/11/20213. Division3. Division · Round 7Vejlby Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

VSK Århus53%
×Draw22%
Karlslunde25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VSK Århus
2.01
Karlslunde
1.33

VSK Århus creates 51% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 16 away

creates per match

VSK Århus
1.89
Karlslunde
1.50

allows per match

VSK Århus
1.17
Karlslunde
2.13

finishing

VSK Århus+0.00on par
Karlslunde+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VSK Århus ↓

Karlslunde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

VSK Århus or draw
75%
VSK Århus or Karlslunde
78%
Draw or Karlslunde
47%

Winning margin

VSK Århus wins by 2+
31%
Karlslunde wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

VSK Århus 1+ goals
87%
VSK Århus 2+ goals
59%
VSK Århus 3+ goals
32%
Karlslunde 1+ goals
74%
Karlslunde 2+ goals
38%
Karlslunde 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

VSK Århus (draw refunded)
68%
Karlslunde (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VSK Århus at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

Karlslunde away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VSK Århus attack 1.89 + Karlslunde defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.01

Karlslunde attack 1.50 + VSK Århus defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

VSK Århus scores more
53%
level
22%
Karlslunde scores more
25%

VSK Århus at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "VSK Århus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division: VSK Århus 2–3 Karlslunde

Karlslunde beat VSK Århus 3-2 in 3. Division on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Vejlby Stadion in Risskov.