Karlslunde 1–3 VSK Århus: Result & Stats

Karlslunde

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

VSK Århus

3/12/2022

3. Division · Round 18Karlslunde Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Karlslunde45%

×Draw23%

VSK Århus32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarlslundeExpected goals in this matchVSK Århus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.47

Karlslunde

1.77

VSK Århus

1.47

Karlslunde creates 20% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 64 away

2.19

creates per match

1.50

1.44

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Karlslunde

2.19

VSK Århus

1.50

allows per match

Karlslunde

1.44

VSK Århus

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlslunde+0.00on par

VSK Århus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlslunde ↓

VSK Århus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Karlslunde or draw

68%

Karlslunde or VSK Århus

77%

Draw or VSK Århus

55%

Winning margin

Karlslunde wins by 2+

24%

VSK Århus wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Karlslunde 1+ goals

83%

Karlslunde 2+ goals

53%

Karlslunde 3+ goals

26%

VSK Århus 1+ goals

77%

VSK Århus 2+ goals

43%

VSK Århus 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Karlslunde (draw refunded)

58%

VSK Århus (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlslunde at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

VSK Århus away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.36 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlslunde attack 2.19 + VSK Århus defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.77

VSK Århus attack 1.50 + Karlslunde defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Karlslunde scores more

45%

level

23%

VSK Århus scores more

32%

Karlslunde at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Karlslunde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff