VSK Århus 1–1 FA 2000: Result & Stats | 3. Division

VSK Århus

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FA 2000

4/15/2023

3. Division · Promotion Group - 1Vejlby Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

VSK Århus42%

×Draw26%

FA 200032%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VSK ÅrhusExpected goals in this matchFA 2000

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.24

VSK Århus

1.46

FA 2000

1.24

VSK Århus creates 18% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 48 away

1.89

creates per match

1.31

1.17

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

VSK Århus

1.89

FA 2000

1.31

allows per match

VSK Århus

1.17

FA 2000

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VSK Århus+0.00on par

FA 2000+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VSK Århus ↓

FA 2000 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

VSK Århus or draw

68%

VSK Århus or FA 2000

74%

Draw or FA 2000

58%

Winning margin

VSK Århus wins by 2+

20%

FA 2000 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

VSK Århus 1+ goals

77%

VSK Århus 2+ goals

43%

VSK Århus 3+ goals

18%

FA 2000 1+ goals

71%

FA 2000 2+ goals

35%

FA 2000 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

VSK Århus (draw refunded)

57%

FA 2000 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VSK Århus at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

FA 2000 away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VSK Århus attack 1.89 + FA 2000 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.46

FA 2000 attack 1.31 + VSK Århus defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

VSK Århus scores more

42%

level

26%

FA 2000 scores more

32%

VSK Århus at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "VSK Århus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff