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FA 2000 vs VSK Århus — 3. Division 2021

FA 2000
FA 2000
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
VSK Århus
VSK Århus
6/10/20233. Division3. Division · Promotion Group - 9Frederiksberg IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

FA 200043%
×Draw26%
VSK Århus32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FA 2000
1.48
VSK Århus
1.23

FA 2000 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 64 away

creates per match

FA 2000
1.60
VSK Århus
1.50

allows per match

FA 2000
0.96
VSK Århus
1.36

finishing

FA 2000+0.00on par
VSK Århus+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FA 2000 ↓

VSK Århus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FA 2000 or draw
68%
FA 2000 or VSK Århus
74%
Draw or VSK Århus
57%

Winning margin

FA 2000 wins by 2+
21%
VSK Århus wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FA 2000 1+ goals
77%
FA 2000 2+ goals
43%
FA 2000 3+ goals
19%
VSK Århus 1+ goals
71%
VSK Århus 2+ goals
35%
VSK Århus 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FA 2000 (draw refunded)
58%
VSK Århus (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FA 2000 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.96 · 48 matches

VSK Århus away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.36 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FA 2000 attack 1.60 + VSK Århus defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.48

VSK Århus attack 1.50 + FA 2000 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FA 2000 scores more
43%
level
26%
VSK Århus scores more
32%

FA 2000 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FA 2000 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division: FA 2000 1–0 VSK Århus

FA 2000 beat VSK Århus 1-0 in 3. Division on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Frederiksberg IP in Frederiksberg.