VSK Århus 3–0 Aarhus Fremad: Result & Stats

VSK Århus

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Aarhus Fremad

3/1/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Grønløkke Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

VSK Århus40%

×Draw27%

Aarhus Fremad33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VSK ÅrhusExpected goals in this matchAarhus Fremad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.17

VSK Århus

1.32

Aarhus Fremad

1.17

VSK Århus creates 13% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 18 away

0.75

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

VSK Århus

0.75

Aarhus Fremad

1.33

allows per match

VSK Århus

1.00

Aarhus Fremad

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VSK Århus+0.00on par

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VSK Århus ↓

Aarhus Fremad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

VSK Århus or draw

67%

VSK Århus or Aarhus Fremad

73%

Draw or Aarhus Fremad

60%

Winning margin

VSK Århus wins by 2+

18%

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

VSK Århus 1+ goals

73%

VSK Århus 2+ goals

38%

VSK Århus 3+ goals

15%

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals

69%

Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals

33%

Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

VSK Århus (draw refunded)

55%

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VSK Århus at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VSK Århus attack 0.75 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.32

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.33 + VSK Århus defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

VSK Århus scores more

40%

level

27%

Aarhus Fremad scores more

33%

VSK Århus at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "VSK Århus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff