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VSK Århus vs Aarhus Fremad — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

VSK Århus
VSK Århus
FT
1 – 2
Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
M. Mandal 50'
M. Christensen 61', 7'
5/1/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Vejlby Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

VSK Århus33%
×Draw26%
Aarhus Fremad41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VSK Århus
1.25
Aarhus Fremad
1.44

Aarhus Fremad creates 15% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 81 away

creates per match

VSK Århus
1.34
Aarhus Fremad
1.63

allows per match

VSK Århus
1.24
Aarhus Fremad
1.15

finishing

VSK Århus+0.00on par
Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VSK Århus ↓

Aarhus Fremad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

VSK Århus or draw
59%
VSK Århus or Aarhus Fremad
74%
Draw or Aarhus Fremad
67%

Winning margin

VSK Århus wins by 2+
14%
Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

VSK Århus 1+ goals
71%
VSK Århus 2+ goals
36%
VSK Århus 3+ goals
13%
Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
76%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
42%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

VSK Århus (draw refunded)
44%
Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VSK Århus at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VSK Århus attack 1.34 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.63 + VSK Århus defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

VSK Århus scores more
33%
level
26%
Aarhus Fremad scores more
41%

Aarhus Fremad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
M. Christensen
50'
M. Mandal
61'
M. Christensen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: VSK Århus 1–2 Aarhus Fremad

Aarhus Fremad beat VSK Århus 2-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on May 1, 2021.

Goals: M. Christensen (7', 61'), M. Mandal (50').

The match was played at Vejlby Stadion in Risskov.