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Øvrevoll Hosle W vs Viking FK W — 1. Division Women 2022

Øvrevoll Hosle W
Øvrevoll Hosle W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Viking FK W
Viking FK W
6/29/20241. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 12Hoslebanen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Øvrevoll Hosle W37%
×Draw24%
Viking FK W40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Øvrevoll Hosle W
1.54
Viking FK W
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 28 away

creates per match

Øvrevoll Hosle W
1.77
Viking FK W
1.71

allows per match

Øvrevoll Hosle W
1.51
Viking FK W
1.32

finishing

Øvrevoll Hosle W+0.00on par
Viking FK W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Øvrevoll Hosle W ↓

Viking FK W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Øvrevoll Hosle W or draw
60%
Øvrevoll Hosle W or Viking FK W
76%
Draw or Viking FK W
63%

Winning margin

Øvrevoll Hosle W wins by 2+
18%
Viking FK W wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Øvrevoll Hosle W 1+ goals
79%
Øvrevoll Hosle W 2+ goals
45%
Øvrevoll Hosle W 3+ goals
20%
Viking FK W 1+ goals
80%
Viking FK W 2+ goals
48%
Viking FK W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Øvrevoll Hosle W (draw refunded)
48%
Viking FK W (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Øvrevoll Hosle W at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.51 · 35 matches

Viking FK W away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Øvrevoll Hosle W attack 1.77 + Viking FK W defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.54

Viking FK W attack 1.71 + Øvrevoll Hosle W defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Øvrevoll Hosle W scores more
37%
level
24%
Viking FK W scores more
40%

Viking FK W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Viking FK W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Øvrevoll Hosle W vs Viking FK W

Øvrevoll Hosle W and Viking FK W drew 1-1 in 1. Division Women on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at Hoslebanen kunstgress in Hosle.