Viking FK W 3–0 Øvrevoll Hosle W: Result & Stats

Viking FK W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Øvrevoll Hosle W

6/8/2024

1. Division Women · Round 9SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Viking FK W41%

×Draw22%

Øvrevoll Hosle W37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viking FK WExpected goals in this matchØvrevoll Hosle W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.75

Viking FK W

1.84

Øvrevoll Hosle W

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 37 away

1.46

creates per match

1.54

1.96

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Viking FK W

1.46

Øvrevoll Hosle W

1.54

allows per match

Viking FK W

1.96

Øvrevoll Hosle W

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viking FK W+0.00on par

Øvrevoll Hosle W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking FK W ↓

Øvrevoll Hosle W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Viking FK W or draw

63%

Viking FK W or Øvrevoll Hosle W

78%

Draw or Øvrevoll Hosle W

59%

Winning margin

Viking FK W wins by 2+

22%

Øvrevoll Hosle W wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Viking FK W 1+ goals

84%

Viking FK W 2+ goals

55%

Viking FK W 3+ goals

28%

Øvrevoll Hosle W 1+ goals

83%

Øvrevoll Hosle W 2+ goals

52%

Øvrevoll Hosle W 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Viking FK W (draw refunded)

52%

Øvrevoll Hosle W (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking FK W at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

Øvrevoll Hosle W away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.22 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking FK W attack 1.46 + Øvrevoll Hosle W defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.84

Øvrevoll Hosle W attack 1.54 + Viking FK W defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Viking FK W scores more

41%

level

22%

Øvrevoll Hosle W scores more

37%

Viking FK W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Viking FK W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff