Øvrevoll Hosle 1–0 Åsane W: Result & Stats

Øvrevoll Hosle

FT

1 – 0

Åsane W

5/22/2022

1. Division Women · Round 9DNB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Øvrevoll Hosle36%

×Draw26%

Åsane W39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Øvrevoll HosleExpected goals in this matchÅsane W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.39

Øvrevoll Hosle

1.32

Åsane W

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 26 away

1.77

creates per match

1.27

1.51

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Øvrevoll Hosle

1.77

Åsane W

1.27

allows per match

Øvrevoll Hosle

1.51

Åsane W

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Øvrevoll Hosle+0.00on par

Åsane W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Øvrevoll Hosle ↓

Åsane W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Øvrevoll Hosle or draw

61%

Øvrevoll Hosle or Åsane W

74%

Draw or Åsane W

64%

Winning margin

Øvrevoll Hosle wins by 2+

16%

Åsane W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Øvrevoll Hosle 1+ goals

73%

Øvrevoll Hosle 2+ goals

38%

Øvrevoll Hosle 3+ goals

15%

Åsane W 1+ goals

75%

Åsane W 2+ goals

40%

Åsane W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Øvrevoll Hosle (draw refunded)

48%

Åsane W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Øvrevoll Hosle at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.51 · 35 matches

Åsane W away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Øvrevoll Hosle attack 1.77 + Åsane W defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.32

Åsane W attack 1.27 + Øvrevoll Hosle defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Øvrevoll Hosle scores more

36%

level

26%

Åsane W scores more

39%

Åsane W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Åsane W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff