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Åsane W vs Øvrevoll Hosle — 1. Division Women 2022

Åsane W
Åsane W
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Øvrevoll Hosle
Øvrevoll Hosle
K. Sunde 90+5', 84', 38', 33'
K. Gumaer 89'
8/14/20221. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 16Åsane Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Åsane W65%
×Draw19%
Øvrevoll Hosle16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åsane W
2.27
Øvrevoll Hosle
1.01

Åsane W creates 125% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 37 away

creates per match

Åsane W
2.32
Øvrevoll Hosle
1.54

allows per match

Åsane W
0.48
Øvrevoll Hosle
2.22

finishing

Åsane W+0.00on par
Øvrevoll Hosle+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åsane W ↓

Øvrevoll Hosle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Åsane W or draw
84%
Åsane W or Øvrevoll Hosle
81%
Draw or Øvrevoll Hosle
35%

Winning margin

Åsane W wins by 2+
42%
Øvrevoll Hosle wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Åsane W 1+ goals
90%
Åsane W 2+ goals
66%
Åsane W 3+ goals
39%
Øvrevoll Hosle 1+ goals
64%
Øvrevoll Hosle 2+ goals
27%
Øvrevoll Hosle 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Åsane W (draw refunded)
81%
Øvrevoll Hosle (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åsane W at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.48 · 25 matches

Øvrevoll Hosle away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.22 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åsane W attack 2.32 + Øvrevoll Hosle defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.27

Øvrevoll Hosle attack 1.54 + Åsane W defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Åsane W scores more
65%
level
19%
Øvrevoll Hosle scores more
16%

Åsane W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Åsane W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
K. Sunde
38'
K. Sunde
84'
K. Sunde
89'
K. Gumaer
90+5'
K. Sunde

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Åsane W vs Øvrevoll Hosle

Åsane W beat Øvrevoll Hosle 4-1 in 1. Division Women on August 14, 2022.

Goals: K. Sunde (33', 38', 84', 90+5'), K. Gumaer (89').

The match was played at Åsane Arena in Bergen.