Vrelo Sport 1–2 Takovo: Result & Stats

Vrelo Sport

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Takovo

3/31/2024

Srpska Liga - West · West - 19Sportski Centar Matic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vrelo Sport34%

×Draw31%

Takovo35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vrelo SportExpected goals in this matchTakovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.00

Vrelo Sport

0.99

Takovo

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 101 away

0.73

creates per match

0.80

1.20

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Vrelo Sport

0.73

Takovo

0.80

allows per match

Vrelo Sport

1.20

Takovo

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vrelo Sport+0.00on par

Takovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vrelo Sport ↓

Takovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Vrelo Sport or draw

65%

Vrelo Sport or Takovo

69%

Draw or Takovo

66%

Winning margin

Vrelo Sport wins by 2+

13%

Takovo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Vrelo Sport 1+ goals

63%

Vrelo Sport 2+ goals

26%

Vrelo Sport 3+ goals

8%

Takovo 1+ goals

63%

Takovo 2+ goals

26%

Takovo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Vrelo Sport (draw refunded)

50%

Takovo (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vrelo Sport at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Takovo away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.25 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vrelo Sport attack 0.73 + Takovo defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.99

Takovo attack 0.80 + Vrelo Sport defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Vrelo Sport scores more

34%

level

31%

Takovo scores more

35%

Takovo at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Takovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff