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Takovo vs Vrelo Sport — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Takovo
Takovo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vrelo Sport
Vrelo Sport
9/9/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 4Stadion FK Takovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Takovo50%
×Draw26%
Vrelo Sport24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Takovo
1.48
Vrelo Sport
0.94

Takovo creates 57% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 15 away

creates per match

Takovo
1.24
Vrelo Sport
0.93

allows per match

Takovo
0.94
Vrelo Sport
1.73

finishing

Takovo+0.00on par
Vrelo Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Takovo ↓

Vrelo Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Takovo or draw
76%
Takovo or Vrelo Sport
74%
Draw or Vrelo Sport
50%

Winning margin

Takovo wins by 2+
25%
Vrelo Sport wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Takovo 1+ goals
77%
Takovo 2+ goals
43%
Takovo 3+ goals
19%
Vrelo Sport 1+ goals
61%
Vrelo Sport 2+ goals
24%
Vrelo Sport 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Takovo (draw refunded)
67%
Vrelo Sport (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Takovo at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

Vrelo Sport away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Takovo attack 1.24 + Vrelo Sport defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

Vrelo Sport attack 0.93 + Takovo defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Takovo scores more
50%
level
26%
Vrelo Sport scores more
24%

Takovo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Takovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Takovo 0–0 Vrelo Sport

Takovo and Vrelo Sport drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - West on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Takovo in Gornji Milanovac.