Vrelo Sport 0–1 Sloga Požega: Result & Stats

Vrelo Sport

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sloga Požega

10/1/2023

Srpska Liga - West · West - 7Sportski Centar Matic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vrelo Sport29%

×Draw30%

Sloga Požega41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vrelo SportExpected goals in this matchSloga Požega

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.16

Vrelo Sport

0.92

Sloga Požega

1.16

Sloga Požega creates 26% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 101 away

0.73

creates per match

1.11

1.20

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Vrelo Sport

0.73

Sloga Požega

1.11

allows per match

Vrelo Sport

1.20

Sloga Požega

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vrelo Sport+0.00on par

Sloga Požega+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vrelo Sport ↓

Sloga Požega →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Vrelo Sport or draw

59%

Vrelo Sport or Sloga Požega

70%

Draw or Sloga Požega

71%

Winning margin

Vrelo Sport wins by 2+

10%

Sloga Požega wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Vrelo Sport 1+ goals

60%

Vrelo Sport 2+ goals

23%

Vrelo Sport 3+ goals

7%

Sloga Požega 1+ goals

69%

Sloga Požega 2+ goals

32%

Sloga Požega 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vrelo Sport (draw refunded)

41%

Sloga Požega (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vrelo Sport at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Sloga Požega away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.10 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vrelo Sport attack 0.73 + Sloga Požega defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.92

Sloga Požega attack 1.11 + Vrelo Sport defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vrelo Sport scores more

29%

level

30%

Sloga Požega scores more

41%

Sloga Požega at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sloga Požega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff