Sloga Požega 1–1 Vrelo Sport: Result & Stats

Sloga Požega

FT

1 – 1

Vrelo Sport

4/13/2024

Srpska Liga - West · West - 22Stadion FK Sloga Požega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sloga Požega61%

×Draw23%

Vrelo Sport17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloga PožegaExpected goals in this matchVrelo Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.82

Sloga Požega

1.80

Vrelo Sport

0.82

Sloga Požega creates 120% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 15 away

1.87

creates per match

0.93

0.71

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Sloga Požega

1.87

Vrelo Sport

0.93

allows per match

Sloga Požega

0.71

Vrelo Sport

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloga Požega+0.00on par

Vrelo Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Požega ↓

Vrelo Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sloga Požega or draw

83%

Sloga Požega or Vrelo Sport

77%

Draw or Vrelo Sport

39%

Winning margin

Sloga Požega wins by 2+

35%

Vrelo Sport wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sloga Požega 1+ goals

83%

Sloga Požega 2+ goals

54%

Sloga Požega 3+ goals

27%

Vrelo Sport 1+ goals

56%

Vrelo Sport 2+ goals

20%

Vrelo Sport 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sloga Požega (draw refunded)

78%

Vrelo Sport (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Požega at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.71 · 100 matches

Vrelo Sport away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Požega attack 1.87 + Vrelo Sport defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.80

Vrelo Sport attack 0.93 + Sloga Požega defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sloga Požega scores more

61%

level

23%

Vrelo Sport scores more

17%

Sloga Požega at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sloga Požega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff