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Vrelo Sport vs Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Vrelo Sport
Vrelo Sport
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi
9/17/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 5Sportski Centar Matic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vrelo Sport42%
×Draw28%
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vrelo Sport
1.28
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi
1.04

Vrelo Sport creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 42 away

creates per match

Vrelo Sport
0.73
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi
0.88

allows per match

Vrelo Sport
1.20
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi
1.83

finishing

Vrelo Sport+0.00on par
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vrelo Sport ↓

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vrelo Sport or draw
70%
Vrelo Sport or Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi
72%
Draw or Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi
58%

Winning margin

Vrelo Sport wins by 2+
19%
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vrelo Sport 1+ goals
72%
Vrelo Sport 2+ goals
37%
Vrelo Sport 3+ goals
14%
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 1+ goals
65%
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 2+ goals
28%
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vrelo Sport (draw refunded)
58%
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vrelo Sport at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.83 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vrelo Sport attack 0.73 + Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.28

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi attack 0.88 + Vrelo Sport defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vrelo Sport scores more
42%
level
28%
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi scores more
30%

Vrelo Sport at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vrelo Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Vrelo Sport 4–0 Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

Vrelo Sport beat Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 4-0 in Srpska Liga - West on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Sportski Centar Matic in Ub.