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Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi vs Vrelo Sport — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Vrelo Sport
Vrelo Sport
4/6/2024Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 20Stadion Sloga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi52%
×Draw24%
Vrelo Sport24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi
1.67
Vrelo Sport
1.04

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi creates 61% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi
1.61
Vrelo Sport
0.93

allows per match

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi
1.15
Vrelo Sport
1.73

finishing

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi+0.00on par
Vrelo Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi ↓

Vrelo Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi or draw
76%
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi or Vrelo Sport
76%
Draw or Vrelo Sport
48%

Winning margin

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi wins by 2+
28%
Vrelo Sport wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 1+ goals
81%
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 2+ goals
50%
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 3+ goals
23%
Vrelo Sport 1+ goals
65%
Vrelo Sport 2+ goals
28%
Vrelo Sport 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi (draw refunded)
69%
Vrelo Sport (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.15 · 41 matches

Vrelo Sport away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi attack 1.61 + Vrelo Sport defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.67

Vrelo Sport attack 0.93 + Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi scores more
52%
level
24%
Vrelo Sport scores more
24%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 4–1 Vrelo Sport

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi beat Vrelo Sport 4-1 in Srpska Liga - West on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Sloga in Petrovac na Mlavi.