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Vrelo Sport vs Polet Ljubić — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Vrelo Sport
Vrelo Sport
FT
0 – 1
Polet Ljubić
Polet Ljubić
3/17/2024Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 17Sportski Centar Matic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vrelo Sport38%
×Draw26%
Polet Ljubić36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vrelo Sport
1.33
Polet Ljubić
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Vrelo Sport
0.73
Polet Ljubić
1.40

allows per match

Vrelo Sport
1.20
Polet Ljubić
1.93

finishing

Vrelo Sport+0.00on par
Polet Ljubić+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vrelo Sport ↓

Polet Ljubić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vrelo Sport or draw
64%
Vrelo Sport or Polet Ljubić
74%
Draw or Polet Ljubić
62%

Winning margin

Vrelo Sport wins by 2+
17%
Polet Ljubić wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Vrelo Sport 1+ goals
74%
Vrelo Sport 2+ goals
38%
Vrelo Sport 3+ goals
15%
Polet Ljubić 1+ goals
73%
Polet Ljubić 2+ goals
37%
Polet Ljubić 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vrelo Sport (draw refunded)
51%
Polet Ljubić (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vrelo Sport at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Polet Ljubić away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.93 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vrelo Sport attack 0.73 + Polet Ljubić defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.33

Polet Ljubić attack 1.40 + Vrelo Sport defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vrelo Sport scores more
38%
level
26%
Polet Ljubić scores more
36%

Vrelo Sport at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vrelo Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Vrelo Sport 0–1 Polet Ljubić

Polet Ljubić beat Vrelo Sport 1-0 in Srpska Liga - West on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sportski Centar Matic in Ub.