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Polet Ljubić vs Vrelo Sport — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Polet Ljubić
Polet Ljubić
FT
1 – 0
Vrelo Sport
Vrelo Sport
8/27/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 2Stadion FK Polet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Polet Ljubić51%
×Draw24%
Vrelo Sport25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polet Ljubić
1.67
Vrelo Sport
1.08

Polet Ljubić creates 55% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Polet Ljubić
1.60
Vrelo Sport
0.93

allows per match

Polet Ljubić
1.24
Vrelo Sport
1.73

finishing

Polet Ljubić+0.00on par
Vrelo Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polet Ljubić ↓

Vrelo Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Polet Ljubić or draw
75%
Polet Ljubić or Vrelo Sport
76%
Draw or Vrelo Sport
49%

Winning margin

Polet Ljubić wins by 2+
27%
Vrelo Sport wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Polet Ljubić 1+ goals
81%
Polet Ljubić 2+ goals
50%
Polet Ljubić 3+ goals
23%
Vrelo Sport 1+ goals
66%
Vrelo Sport 2+ goals
29%
Vrelo Sport 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Polet Ljubić (draw refunded)
67%
Vrelo Sport (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polet Ljubić at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

Vrelo Sport away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polet Ljubić attack 1.60 + Vrelo Sport defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.67

Vrelo Sport attack 0.93 + Polet Ljubić defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Polet Ljubić scores more
51%
level
24%
Vrelo Sport scores more
25%

Polet Ljubić at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Polet Ljubić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polet Ljubić vs Vrelo Sport

Polet Ljubić beat Vrelo Sport 1-0 in Srpska Liga - West on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Polet in Čačak.