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Vrelo Sport vs Loznica — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Vrelo Sport
Vrelo Sport
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Loznica
Loznica
5/26/2024Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 29Sportski Centar Matic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vrelo Sport31%
×Draw30%
Loznica39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vrelo Sport
0.98
Loznica
1.14

Loznica creates 16% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 39 away

creates per match

Vrelo Sport
0.73
Loznica
1.08

allows per match

Vrelo Sport
1.20
Loznica
1.23

finishing

Vrelo Sport+0.00on par
Loznica+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vrelo Sport ↓

Loznica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Vrelo Sport or draw
61%
Vrelo Sport or Loznica
70%
Draw or Loznica
69%

Winning margin

Vrelo Sport wins by 2+
11%
Loznica wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Vrelo Sport 1+ goals
62%
Vrelo Sport 2+ goals
26%
Vrelo Sport 3+ goals
8%
Loznica 1+ goals
68%
Loznica 2+ goals
32%
Loznica 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vrelo Sport (draw refunded)
44%
Loznica (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vrelo Sport at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Loznica away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vrelo Sport attack 0.73 + Loznica defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.98

Loznica attack 1.08 + Vrelo Sport defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vrelo Sport scores more
31%
level
30%
Loznica scores more
39%

Loznica at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Loznica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vrelo Sport vs Loznica

Loznica beat Vrelo Sport 3-1 in Srpska Liga - West on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Sportski Centar Matic in Ub.