Loznica 3–2 Vrelo Sport: Result & Stats

Loznica

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Vrelo Sport

11/18/2023

Srpska Liga - West · West - 14Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Loznica57%

×Draw24%

Vrelo Sport19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LoznicaExpected goals in this matchVrelo Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.88

Loznica

1.71

Vrelo Sport

0.88

Loznica creates 94% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 15 away

1.70

creates per match

0.93

0.82

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Loznica

1.70

Vrelo Sport

0.93

allows per match

Loznica

0.82

Vrelo Sport

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loznica+0.00on par

Vrelo Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loznica ↓

Vrelo Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Loznica or draw

81%

Loznica or Vrelo Sport

76%

Draw or Vrelo Sport

43%

Winning margin

Loznica wins by 2+

32%

Vrelo Sport wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Loznica 1+ goals

82%

Loznica 2+ goals

51%

Loznica 3+ goals

24%

Vrelo Sport 1+ goals

59%

Vrelo Sport 2+ goals

22%

Vrelo Sport 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Loznica (draw refunded)

75%

Vrelo Sport (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loznica at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.82 · 40 matches

Vrelo Sport away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loznica attack 1.70 + Vrelo Sport defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.71

Vrelo Sport attack 0.93 + Loznica defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Loznica scores more

57%

level

24%

Vrelo Sport scores more

19%

Loznica at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Loznica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff