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Vrelo Sport vs Jošanica — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Vrelo Sport
Vrelo Sport
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Jošanica
Jošanica
5/19/2024Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 27Sportski Centar Matic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vrelo Sport37%
×Draw29%
Jošanica34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vrelo Sport
1.14
Jošanica
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 70 away

creates per match

Vrelo Sport
0.73
Jošanica
0.94

allows per match

Vrelo Sport
1.20
Jošanica
1.54

finishing

Vrelo Sport+0.00on par
Jošanica+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vrelo Sport ↓

Jošanica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Vrelo Sport or draw
66%
Vrelo Sport or Jošanica
71%
Draw or Jošanica
63%

Winning margin

Vrelo Sport wins by 2+
15%
Jošanica wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vrelo Sport 1+ goals
68%
Vrelo Sport 2+ goals
32%
Vrelo Sport 3+ goals
11%
Jošanica 1+ goals
66%
Jošanica 2+ goals
29%
Jošanica 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vrelo Sport (draw refunded)
52%
Jošanica (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vrelo Sport at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Jošanica away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.54 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vrelo Sport attack 0.73 + Jošanica defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.14

Jošanica attack 0.94 + Vrelo Sport defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vrelo Sport scores more
37%
level
29%
Jošanica scores more
34%

Vrelo Sport at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Vrelo Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vrelo Sport vs Jošanica

Jošanica beat Vrelo Sport 2-0 in Srpska Liga - West on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Sportski Centar Matic in Ub.