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Jošanica vs Vrelo Sport — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Jošanica
Jošanica
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Vrelo Sport
Vrelo Sport
11/4/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 12Caizcoin Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jošanica50%
×Draw26%
Vrelo Sport24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jošanica
1.51
Vrelo Sport
0.97

Jošanica creates 56% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 15 away

creates per match

Jošanica
1.29
Vrelo Sport
0.93

allows per match

Jošanica
1.00
Vrelo Sport
1.73

finishing

Jošanica+0.00on par
Vrelo Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jošanica ↓

Vrelo Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Jošanica or draw
76%
Jošanica or Vrelo Sport
74%
Draw or Vrelo Sport
50%

Winning margin

Jošanica wins by 2+
25%
Vrelo Sport wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jošanica 1+ goals
78%
Jošanica 2+ goals
44%
Jošanica 3+ goals
19%
Vrelo Sport 1+ goals
62%
Vrelo Sport 2+ goals
25%
Vrelo Sport 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jošanica (draw refunded)
67%
Vrelo Sport (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jošanica at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 70 matches

Vrelo Sport away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jošanica attack 1.29 + Vrelo Sport defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.51

Vrelo Sport attack 0.93 + Jošanica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jošanica scores more
50%
level
26%
Vrelo Sport scores more
24%

Jošanica at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jošanica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jošanica vs Vrelo Sport

Jošanica and Vrelo Sport drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - West on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Caizcoin Arena in Novi Pazar.