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Vreden vs Bövinghausen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Vreden
Vreden
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bövinghausen
Bövinghausen
5/14/2023Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 32Hamalandstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Vreden54%
×Draw21%
Bövinghausen25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vreden
2.15
Bövinghausen
1.42

Vreden creates 51% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 47 away

creates per match

Vreden
1.80
Bövinghausen
1.30

allows per match

Vreden
1.53
Bövinghausen
2.51

finishing

Vreden+0.00on par
Bövinghausen+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vreden ↓

Bövinghausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Vreden or draw
75%
Vreden or Bövinghausen
79%
Draw or Bövinghausen
46%

Winning margin

Vreden wins by 2+
32%
Bövinghausen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vreden 1+ goals
88%
Vreden 2+ goals
63%
Vreden 3+ goals
36%
Bövinghausen 1+ goals
76%
Bövinghausen 2+ goals
41%
Bövinghausen 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vreden (draw refunded)
68%
Bövinghausen (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vreden at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.53 · 89 matches

Bövinghausen away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.51 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vreden attack 1.80 + Bövinghausen defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.15

Bövinghausen attack 1.30 + Vreden defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vreden scores more
54%
level
21%
Bövinghausen scores more
25%

Vreden at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vreden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Vreden 3–2 Bövinghausen

Vreden beat Bövinghausen 3-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Hamalandstadion in Vreden.