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Bövinghausen vs Vreden — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Bövinghausen
Bövinghausen
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Vreden
Vreden
12/3/2023Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 16Sportplatz Bövinghausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Bövinghausen33%
×Draw21%
Vreden47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bövinghausen
1.78
Vreden
2.15

Vreden creates 21% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 90 away

creates per match

Bövinghausen
1.66
Vreden
1.46

allows per match

Bövinghausen
2.83
Vreden
1.90

finishing

Bövinghausen+0.00on par
Vreden+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bövinghausen ↓

Vreden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Bövinghausen or draw
53%
Bövinghausen or Vreden
79%
Draw or Vreden
67%

Winning margin

Bövinghausen wins by 2+
16%
Vreden wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Bövinghausen 1+ goals
83%
Bövinghausen 2+ goals
53%
Bövinghausen 3+ goals
26%
Vreden 1+ goals
88%
Vreden 2+ goals
63%
Vreden 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Bövinghausen (draw refunded)
41%
Vreden (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bövinghausen at home — creates 1.66, concedes 2.83 · 47 matches

Vreden away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.90 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bövinghausen attack 1.66 + Vreden defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.78

Vreden attack 1.46 + Bövinghausen defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bövinghausen scores more
33%
level
21%
Vreden scores more
47%

Vreden at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vreden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Bövinghausen 3–2 Vreden

Bövinghausen beat Vreden 3-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Bövinghausen in Dortmund.