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Vrchovina vs Velká Bíteš — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Vrchovina
Vrchovina
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Velká Bíteš
Velká Bíteš
11/4/20234. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 14Stadion Nové Město na Moravě

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Vrchovina53%
×Draw21%
Velká Bíteš26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vrchovina
2.11
Velká Bíteš
1.44

Vrchovina creates 47% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 82 away

creates per match

Vrchovina
2.50
Velká Bíteš
1.70

allows per match

Vrchovina
1.17
Velká Bíteš
1.72

finishing

Vrchovina+0.00on par
Velká Bíteš+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vrchovina ↓

Velká Bíteš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Vrchovina or draw
74%
Vrchovina or Velká Bíteš
79%
Draw or Velká Bíteš
47%

Winning margin

Vrchovina wins by 2+
31%
Velká Bíteš wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vrchovina 1+ goals
88%
Vrchovina 2+ goals
62%
Vrchovina 3+ goals
35%
Velká Bíteš 1+ goals
76%
Velká Bíteš 2+ goals
42%
Velká Bíteš 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Vrchovina (draw refunded)
67%
Velká Bíteš (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vrchovina at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Velká Bíteš away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.72 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vrchovina attack 2.50 + Velká Bíteš defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.11

Velká Bíteš attack 1.70 + Vrchovina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vrchovina scores more
53%
level
21%
Velká Bíteš scores more
26%

Vrchovina at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vrchovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vrchovina vs Velká Bíteš

Vrchovina and Velká Bíteš drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Nové Město na Moravě in Nové Město na Moravě.