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Velká Bíteš vs Vrchovina — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Velká Bíteš
Velká Bíteš
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Vrchovina
Vrchovina
5/23/20254. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 27Stadion Osová Bítýška

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Velká Bíteš34%
×Draw24%
Vrchovina42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velká Bíteš
1.39
Vrchovina
1.58

Vrchovina creates 14% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 30 away

creates per match

Velká Bíteš
1.67
Vrchovina
1.87

allows per match

Velká Bíteš
1.28
Vrchovina
1.10

finishing

Velká Bíteš+0.00on par
Vrchovina+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velká Bíteš ↓

Vrchovina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Velká Bíteš or draw
58%
Velká Bíteš or Vrchovina
76%
Draw or Vrchovina
66%

Winning margin

Velká Bíteš wins by 2+
15%
Vrchovina wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Velká Bíteš 1+ goals
75%
Velká Bíteš 2+ goals
40%
Velká Bíteš 3+ goals
16%
Vrchovina 1+ goals
79%
Vrchovina 2+ goals
47%
Vrchovina 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Velká Bíteš (draw refunded)
44%
Vrchovina (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velká Bíteš at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.28 · 83 matches

Vrchovina away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velká Bíteš attack 1.67 + Vrchovina defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.39

Vrchovina attack 1.87 + Velká Bíteš defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Velká Bíteš scores more
34%
level
24%
Vrchovina scores more
42%

Vrchovina at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vrchovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Velká Bíteš vs Vrchovina

Vrchovina beat Velká Bíteš 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on May 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Osová Bítýška in Osová Bítýška.