Vrchovina 0–0 Odra Petřkovice: Result & Stats

Vrchovina

FT

0 – 0

Odra Petřkovice

9/28/2019

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 9Stadion Nové Město na Moravě

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Vrchovina30%

×Draw24%

Odra Petřkovice46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VrchovinaExpected goals in this matchOdra Petřkovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.64

Vrchovina

1.27

Odra Petřkovice

1.64

Odra Petřkovice creates 29% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 12 away

1.45

creates per match

1.83

1.45

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Vrchovina

1.45

Odra Petřkovice

1.83

allows per match

Vrchovina

1.45

Odra Petřkovice

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vrchovina+0.00on par

Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vrchovina ↓

Odra Petřkovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Vrchovina or draw

54%

Vrchovina or Odra Petřkovice

76%

Draw or Odra Petřkovice

70%

Winning margin

Vrchovina wins by 2+

13%

Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Vrchovina 1+ goals

72%

Vrchovina 2+ goals

36%

Vrchovina 3+ goals

14%

Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals

81%

Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals

49%

Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Vrchovina (draw refunded)

39%

Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vrchovina at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 65 matches

Odra Petřkovice away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vrchovina attack 1.45 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.83 + Vrchovina defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vrchovina scores more

30%

level

24%

Odra Petřkovice scores more

46%

Odra Petřkovice at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Odra Petřkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff