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Odra Petřkovice vs Vrchovina — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Odra Petřkovice
Odra Petřkovice
FT
5 – 1
Vrchovina
Vrchovina
M. Neumann 89'
O. Moucka 21', 10'
V. Wala 19'
A. Zajicek 11'
J. Svanda 83'
10/10/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 10Stadion Petřkovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Odra Petřkovice53%
×Draw24%
Vrchovina23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Petřkovice
1.76
Vrchovina
1.09

Odra Petřkovice creates 61% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 65 away

creates per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.65
Vrchovina
1.06

allows per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.12
Vrchovina
1.88

finishing

Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par
Vrchovina+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Petřkovice ↓

Vrchovina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Odra Petřkovice or draw
77%
Odra Petřkovice or Vrchovina
76%
Draw or Vrchovina
47%

Winning margin

Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+
29%
Vrchovina wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals
83%
Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals
52%
Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals
26%
Vrchovina 1+ goals
66%
Vrchovina 2+ goals
30%
Vrchovina 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)
69%
Vrchovina (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Petřkovice at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Vrchovina away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.88 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.65 + Vrchovina defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.76

Vrchovina attack 1.06 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Odra Petřkovice scores more
53%
level
24%
Vrchovina scores more
23%

Odra Petřkovice at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Odra Petřkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
D. Steffl
10'
O. Moucka
11'
A. Zajicek
19'
V. Wala
21'
O. Moucka
31'
J. Batelka← J. Batelka
36'
M. Praus
63'
L. Michal
72'
L. Raab← L. Raab
77'
L. Ptacek← L. Ptacek
79'
O. Moucka← J. Raska
83'
J. Svanda
89'
M. Neumann
89'
J. Misanec← J. Misanec

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Odra Petřkovice vs Vrchovina

Odra Petřkovice beat Vrchovina 5-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on October 10, 2020.

Goals: O. Moucka (10', 21'), A. Zajicek (11'), V. Wala (19'), J. Svanda (83'), M. Neumann (89').

The match was played at Stadion Petřkovice in Ostrava.