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Vratimov vs Viktoria Otrokovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Vratimov
Vratimov
FT
3 – 0
Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
10/9/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 11Stadion Vratimov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vratimov39%
×Draw21%
Viktoria Otrokovice39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vratimov
1.94
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 68 away

creates per match

Vratimov
1.88
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.37

allows per match

Vratimov
2.50
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.99

finishing

Vratimov+0.00on par
Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vratimov ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Vratimov or draw
61%
Vratimov or Viktoria Otrokovice
79%
Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice
61%

Winning margin

Vratimov wins by 2+
21%
Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Vratimov 1+ goals
86%
Vratimov 2+ goals
58%
Vratimov 3+ goals
30%
Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
86%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
58%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Vratimov (draw refunded)
50%
Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vratimov at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.50 · 16 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.99 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vratimov attack 1.88 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.94

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.37 + Vratimov defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vratimov scores more
39%
level
21%
Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
39%

Vratimov at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vratimov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Vratimov 3–0 Viktoria Otrokovice

Vratimov beat Viktoria Otrokovice 3-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Vratimov in Vratimov.