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Viktoria Otrokovice vs Vratimov — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
FT
5 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vratimov
Vratimov
5/13/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 28Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Viktoria Otrokovice51%
×Draw23%
Vratimov26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.84
Vratimov
1.24

Viktoria Otrokovice creates 48% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 17 away

creates per match

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.62
Vratimov
0.71

allows per match

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.77
Vratimov
2.06

finishing

Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par
Vratimov+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Otrokovice ↓

Vratimov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Viktoria Otrokovice or draw
74%
Viktoria Otrokovice or Vratimov
77%
Draw or Vratimov
49%

Winning margin

Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
29%
Vratimov wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
84%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
55%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
28%
Vratimov 1+ goals
71%
Vratimov 2+ goals
35%
Vratimov 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
67%
Vratimov (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Otrokovice at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 66 matches

Vratimov away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.62 + Vratimov defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.84

Vratimov attack 0.71 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
51%
level
23%
Vratimov scores more
26%

Viktoria Otrokovice at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Viktoria Otrokovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Otrokovice vs Vratimov

Viktoria Otrokovice beat Vratimov 5-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on May 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice in Otrokovice.