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Vratimov vs Beskyd Frenštát — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Vratimov
Vratimov
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
9/16/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 7Stadion Vratimov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vratimov55%
×Draw20%
Beskyd Frenštát25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vratimov
2.32
Beskyd Frenštát
1.54

Vratimov creates 51% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

creates per match

Vratimov
2.27
Beskyd Frenštát
1.23

allows per match

Vratimov
1.84
Beskyd Frenštát
2.37

finishing

Vratimov+0.00on par
Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vratimov ↓

Beskyd Frenštát →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Vratimov or draw
75%
Vratimov or Beskyd Frenštát
80%
Draw or Beskyd Frenštát
45%

Winning margin

Vratimov wins by 2+
34%
Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vratimov 1+ goals
90%
Vratimov 2+ goals
67%
Vratimov 3+ goals
40%
Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
79%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
45%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Vratimov (draw refunded)
68%
Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vratimov at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.84 · 45 matches

Beskyd Frenštát away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vratimov attack 2.27 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.32

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.23 + Vratimov defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vratimov scores more
55%
level
20%
Beskyd Frenštát scores more
25%

Vratimov at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vratimov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Vratimov 2–1 Beskyd Frenštát

Vratimov beat Beskyd Frenštát 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Vratimov in Vratimov.