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Beskyd Frenštát vs Vratimov — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Vratimov
Vratimov
5/8/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 22Stadion Na Nivách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Beskyd Frenštát38%
×Draw24%
Vratimov39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beskyd Frenštát
1.58
Vratimov
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 45 away

creates per match

Beskyd Frenštát
1.59
Vratimov
1.40

allows per match

Beskyd Frenštát
1.80
Vratimov
1.56

finishing

Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par
Vratimov+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beskyd Frenštát ↓

Vratimov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Beskyd Frenštát or draw
61%
Beskyd Frenštát or Vratimov
76%
Draw or Vratimov
62%

Winning margin

Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
19%
Vratimov wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
79%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
47%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
21%
Vratimov 1+ goals
80%
Vratimov 2+ goals
47%
Vratimov 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
49%
Vratimov (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beskyd Frenštát at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 61 matches

Vratimov away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.59 + Vratimov defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.58

Vratimov attack 1.40 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Beskyd Frenštát scores more
38%
level
24%
Vratimov scores more
39%

Vratimov at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vratimov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Beskyd Frenštát 2–5 Vratimov

Vratimov beat Beskyd Frenštát 5-2 in 4. liga - Divizie F on May 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Na Nivách in Frenštát pod Radhoštěm.