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Vranov nad Topľou vs Veľké Revištia — 3. liga - East 2020

Vranov nad Topľou
Vranov nad Topľou
CANC
15:00
Veľké Revištia
Veľké Revištia
5/23/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Vranov nad Topľou78%
×Draw13%
Veľké Revištia9%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vranov nad Topľou
2.97
Veľké Revištia
0.92

Vranov nad Topľou creates 223% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 8 away

creates per match

Vranov nad Topľou
2.69
Veľké Revištia
0.63

allows per match

Vranov nad Topľou
1.21
Veľké Revištia
3.25

finishing

Vranov nad Topľou+0.00on par
Veľké Revištia+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vranov nad Topľou ↓

Veľké Revištia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Vranov nad Topľou or draw
91%
Vranov nad Topľou or Veľké Revištia
87%
Draw or Veľké Revištia
22%

Winning margin

Vranov nad Topľou wins by 2+
58%
Veľké Revištia wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Vranov nad Topľou 1+ goals
95%
Vranov nad Topľou 2+ goals
79%
Vranov nad Topľou 3+ goals
56%
Veľké Revištia 1+ goals
60%
Veľké Revištia 2+ goals
23%
Veľké Revištia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vranov nad Topľou (draw refunded)
90%
Veľké Revištia (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vranov nad Topľou at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.21 · 78 matches

Veľké Revištia away — creates 0.63, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vranov nad Topľou attack 2.69 + Veľké Revištia defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.97

Veľké Revištia attack 0.63 + Vranov nad Topľou defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Vranov nad Topľou scores more
78%
level
13%
Veľké Revištia scores more
9%

Vranov nad Topľou at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Vranov nad Topľou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vranov nad Topľou face Veľké Revištia (3. liga - East)

3. liga - East returns with Vranov nad Topľou hosting Veľké Revištia. Match starts May 23, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.