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Veľké Revištia vs Vranov nad Topľou — 3. liga - East 2020

Veľké Revištia
Veľké Revištia
FT
0 – 1
Vranov nad Topľou
Vranov nad Topľou
5/23/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 11Futbalový štadión MFK Sobrance

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Veľké Revištia37%
×Draw25%
Vranov nad Topľou39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veľké Revištia
1.46
Vranov nad Topľou
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 81 away

creates per match

Veľké Revištia
1.43
Vranov nad Topľou
1.14

allows per match

Veľké Revištia
1.86
Vranov nad Topľou
1.48

finishing

Veľké Revištia+0.00on par
Vranov nad Topľou+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veľké Revištia ↓

Vranov nad Topľou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Veľké Revištia or draw
61%
Veľké Revištia or Vranov nad Topľou
75%
Draw or Vranov nad Topľou
63%

Winning margin

Veľké Revištia wins by 2+
17%
Vranov nad Topľou wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Veľké Revištia 1+ goals
77%
Veľké Revištia 2+ goals
43%
Veľké Revištia 3+ goals
18%
Vranov nad Topľou 1+ goals
78%
Vranov nad Topľou 2+ goals
44%
Vranov nad Topľou 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Veľké Revištia (draw refunded)
49%
Vranov nad Topľou (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veľké Revištia at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Vranov nad Topľou away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veľké Revištia attack 1.43 + Vranov nad Topľou defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.46

Vranov nad Topľou attack 1.14 + Veľké Revištia defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Veľké Revištia scores more
37%
level
25%
Vranov nad Topľou scores more
39%

Vranov nad Topľou at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vranov nad Topľou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Veľké Revištia 0–1 Vranov nad Topľou

Vranov nad Topľou beat Veľké Revištia 1-0 in 3. liga - East on May 23, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión MFK Sobrance in Sobrance.