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Vranov nad Topľou vs Sobrance — 3. liga - East 2020

Vranov nad Topľou
Vranov nad Topľou
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sobrance
Sobrance
3/19/20223. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 17Futbalový štadión FK Bukóza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vranov nad Topľou72%
×Draw16%
Sobrance12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vranov nad Topľou
2.61
Sobrance
0.97

Vranov nad Topľou creates 169% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 15 away

creates per match

Vranov nad Topľou
2.69
Sobrance
0.73

allows per match

Vranov nad Topľou
1.21
Sobrance
2.53

finishing

Vranov nad Topľou+0.00on par
Sobrance+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vranov nad Topľou ↓

Sobrance →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Vranov nad Topľou or draw
88%
Vranov nad Topľou or Sobrance
84%
Draw or Sobrance
28%

Winning margin

Vranov nad Topľou wins by 2+
50%
Sobrance wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vranov nad Topľou 1+ goals
93%
Vranov nad Topľou 2+ goals
73%
Vranov nad Topľou 3+ goals
47%
Sobrance 1+ goals
62%
Sobrance 2+ goals
25%
Sobrance 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vranov nad Topľou (draw refunded)
86%
Sobrance (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vranov nad Topľou at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.21 · 78 matches

Sobrance away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vranov nad Topľou attack 2.69 + Sobrance defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.61

Sobrance attack 0.73 + Vranov nad Topľou defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Vranov nad Topľou scores more
72%
level
16%
Sobrance scores more
12%

Vranov nad Topľou at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Vranov nad Topľou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Vranov nad Topľou 1–1 Sobrance

Vranov nad Topľou and Sobrance drew 1-1 in 3. liga - East on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión FK Bukóza in Vranov nad Topľou.