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Sobrance vs Vranov nad Topľou — 3. liga - East 2020

Sobrance
Sobrance
FT
2 – 2
Vranov nad Topľou
Vranov nad Topľou
8/4/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 2Futbalový štadión MFK Sobrance

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sobrance41%
×Draw24%
Vranov nad Topľou34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sobrance
1.60
Vranov nad Topľou
1.44

Sobrance creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 81 away

creates per match

Sobrance
1.73
Vranov nad Topľou
1.14

allows per match

Sobrance
1.73
Vranov nad Topľou
1.48

finishing

Sobrance+0.00on par
Vranov nad Topľou+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sobrance ↓

Vranov nad Topľou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sobrance or draw
66%
Sobrance or Vranov nad Topľou
76%
Draw or Vranov nad Topľou
59%

Winning margin

Sobrance wins by 2+
21%
Vranov nad Topľou wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sobrance 1+ goals
80%
Sobrance 2+ goals
47%
Sobrance 3+ goals
22%
Vranov nad Topľou 1+ goals
76%
Vranov nad Topľou 2+ goals
42%
Vranov nad Topľou 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sobrance (draw refunded)
55%
Vranov nad Topľou (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sobrance at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Vranov nad Topľou away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sobrance attack 1.73 + Vranov nad Topľou defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.60

Vranov nad Topľou attack 1.14 + Sobrance defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sobrance scores more
41%
level
24%
Vranov nad Topľou scores more
34%

Sobrance at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sobrance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sobrance vs Vranov nad Topľou

Sobrance and Vranov nad Topľou drew 2-2 in 3. liga - East on August 4, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión MFK Sobrance in Sobrance.