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Vranov nad Topľou vs Mladosť Kalša — 3. liga - East 2020

Vranov nad Topľou
Vranov nad Topľou
CANC
12:30
Mladosť Kalša
Mladosť Kalša
11/14/20203. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 17Futbalový štadión FK Bukóza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Vranov nad Topľou63%
×Draw17%
Mladosť Kalša20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vranov nad Topľou
2.77
Mladosť Kalša
1.52

Vranov nad Topľou creates 82% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 22 away

creates per match

Vranov nad Topľou
2.69
Mladosť Kalša
1.82

allows per match

Vranov nad Topľou
1.21
Mladosť Kalša
2.86

finishing

Vranov nad Topľou+0.00on par
Mladosť Kalša+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vranov nad Topľou ↓

Mladosť Kalša →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Vranov nad Topľou or draw
80%
Vranov nad Topľou or Mladosť Kalša
83%
Draw or Mladosť Kalša
37%

Winning margin

Vranov nad Topľou wins by 2+
43%
Mladosť Kalša wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vranov nad Topľou 1+ goals
94%
Vranov nad Topľou 2+ goals
76%
Vranov nad Topľou 3+ goals
51%
Mladosť Kalša 1+ goals
78%
Mladosť Kalša 2+ goals
45%
Mladosť Kalša 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Vranov nad Topľou (draw refunded)
76%
Mladosť Kalša (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vranov nad Topľou at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.21 · 78 matches

Mladosť Kalša away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vranov nad Topľou attack 2.69 + Mladosť Kalša defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.77

Mladosť Kalša attack 1.82 + Vranov nad Topľou defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Vranov nad Topľou scores more
63%
level
17%
Mladosť Kalša scores more
20%

Vranov nad Topľou at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Vranov nad Topľou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vranov nad Topľou face Mladosť Kalša (3. liga - East)

3. liga - East returns with Vranov nad Topľou hosting Mladosť Kalša. Match starts November 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Vranov nad Topľou host Mladosť Kalša at Futbalový štadión FK Bukóza.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.