Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mladosť Kalša vs Vranov nad Topľou — 3. liga - East 2020

Mladosť Kalša
Mladosť Kalša
FT
0 – 1
Vranov nad Topľou
Vranov nad Topľou
8/5/20203. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 2Sport Club Mladosť Kalša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Mladosť Kalša49%
×Draw22%
Vranov nad Topľou29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladosť Kalša
1.98
Vranov nad Topľou
1.50

Mladosť Kalša creates 32% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 81 away

creates per match

Mladosť Kalša
2.48
Vranov nad Topľou
1.14

allows per match

Mladosť Kalša
1.87
Vranov nad Topľou
1.48

finishing

Mladosť Kalša+0.00on par
Vranov nad Topľou+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladosť Kalša ↓

Vranov nad Topľou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Mladosť Kalša or draw
71%
Mladosť Kalša or Vranov nad Topľou
78%
Draw or Vranov nad Topľou
51%

Winning margin

Mladosť Kalša wins by 2+
28%
Vranov nad Topľou wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mladosť Kalša 1+ goals
86%
Mladosť Kalša 2+ goals
59%
Mladosť Kalša 3+ goals
31%
Vranov nad Topľou 1+ goals
78%
Vranov nad Topľou 2+ goals
44%
Vranov nad Topľou 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Mladosť Kalša (draw refunded)
62%
Vranov nad Topľou (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladosť Kalša at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

Vranov nad Topľou away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladosť Kalša attack 2.48 + Vranov nad Topľou defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.98

Vranov nad Topľou attack 1.14 + Mladosť Kalša defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mladosť Kalša scores more
49%
level
22%
Vranov nad Topľou scores more
29%

Mladosť Kalša at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mladosť Kalša will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladosť Kalša vs Vranov nad Topľou

Vranov nad Topľou beat Mladosť Kalša 1-0 in 3. liga - East on August 5, 2020.

The match was played at Sport Club Mladosť Kalša in Kalša.