Vranov nad Topľou 3–1 Baník Kalinovo

Vranov nad Topľou

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Baník Kalinovo

11/4/2023

3. liga - East · East - 14Futbalový štadión FK Bukóza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Vranov nad Topľou68%

×Draw17%

Baník Kalinovo15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vranov nad TopľouExpected goals in this matchBaník Kalinovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.14

Vranov nad Topľou

2.58

Baník Kalinovo

1.14

Vranov nad Topľou creates 126% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 44 away

2.69

creates per match

1.07

1.21

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

Vranov nad Topľou

2.69

Baník Kalinovo

1.07

allows per match

Vranov nad Topľou

1.21

Baník Kalinovo

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vranov nad Topľou+0.00on par

Baník Kalinovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vranov nad Topľou ↓

Baník Kalinovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Vranov nad Topľou or draw

85%

Vranov nad Topľou or Baník Kalinovo

83%

Draw or Baník Kalinovo

32%

Winning margin

Vranov nad Topľou wins by 2+

46%

Baník Kalinovo wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Vranov nad Topľou 1+ goals

92%

Vranov nad Topľou 2+ goals

72%

Vranov nad Topľou 3+ goals

47%

Baník Kalinovo 1+ goals

68%

Baník Kalinovo 2+ goals

32%

Baník Kalinovo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vranov nad Topľou (draw refunded)

82%

Baník Kalinovo (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vranov nad Topľou at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.21 · 78 matches

Baník Kalinovo away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.48 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vranov nad Topľou attack 2.69 + Baník Kalinovo defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.58

Baník Kalinovo attack 1.07 + Vranov nad Topľou defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Vranov nad Topľou scores more

68%

level

17%

Baník Kalinovo scores more

15%

Vranov nad Topľou at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Vranov nad Topľou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff