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Baník Kalinovo vs Vranov nad Topľou — 3. liga - East 2020

Baník Kalinovo
Baník Kalinovo
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Vranov nad Topľou
Vranov nad Topľou
6/1/20243. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 29Štadión Kalinovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Baník Kalinovo43%
×Draw25%
Vranov nad Topľou33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Kalinovo
1.56
Vranov nad Topľou
1.34

Baník Kalinovo creates 16% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 81 away

creates per match

Baník Kalinovo
1.64
Vranov nad Topľou
1.14

allows per match

Baník Kalinovo
1.55
Vranov nad Topľou
1.48

finishing

Baník Kalinovo+0.00on par
Vranov nad Topľou+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Kalinovo ↓

Vranov nad Topľou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Baník Kalinovo or draw
67%
Baník Kalinovo or Vranov nad Topľou
75%
Draw or Vranov nad Topľou
57%

Winning margin

Baník Kalinovo wins by 2+
21%
Vranov nad Topľou wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Baník Kalinovo 1+ goals
79%
Baník Kalinovo 2+ goals
46%
Baník Kalinovo 3+ goals
21%
Vranov nad Topľou 1+ goals
74%
Vranov nad Topľou 2+ goals
39%
Vranov nad Topľou 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Baník Kalinovo (draw refunded)
56%
Vranov nad Topľou (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Kalinovo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.55 · 44 matches

Vranov nad Topľou away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Kalinovo attack 1.64 + Vranov nad Topľou defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.56

Vranov nad Topľou attack 1.14 + Baník Kalinovo defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Baník Kalinovo scores more
43%
level
25%
Vranov nad Topľou scores more
33%

Baník Kalinovo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Baník Kalinovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Kalinovo vs Vranov nad Topľou

Vranov nad Topľou beat Baník Kalinovo 4-0 in 3. liga - East on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión Kalinovo in Kalinovo.