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Vrakuňa vs Inter Bratislava — 3. liga - West 2020

Vrakuňa
Vrakuňa
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Inter Bratislava
Inter Bratislava
5/13/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 26Štadión Šk Vrakuňa Bratislava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vrakuňa22%
×Draw21%
Inter Bratislava57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vrakuňa
1.22
Inter Bratislava
2.09

Inter Bratislava creates 71% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 31 away

creates per match

Vrakuňa
0.86
Inter Bratislava
1.48

allows per match

Vrakuňa
2.71
Inter Bratislava
1.58

finishing

Vrakuňa+0.00on par
Inter Bratislava+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vrakuňa ↓

Inter Bratislava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vrakuňa or draw
43%
Vrakuňa or Inter Bratislava
79%
Draw or Inter Bratislava
78%

Winning margin

Vrakuňa wins by 2+
9%
Inter Bratislava wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Vrakuňa 1+ goals
70%
Vrakuňa 2+ goals
34%
Vrakuňa 3+ goals
12%
Inter Bratislava 1+ goals
88%
Inter Bratislava 2+ goals
62%
Inter Bratislava 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Vrakuňa (draw refunded)
28%
Inter Bratislava (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vrakuňa at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

Inter Bratislava away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vrakuňa attack 0.86 + Inter Bratislava defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.22

Inter Bratislava attack 1.48 + Vrakuňa defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vrakuňa scores more
22%
level
21%
Inter Bratislava scores more
57%

Inter Bratislava at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Inter Bratislava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Vrakuňa 0–5 Inter Bratislava

Inter Bratislava beat Vrakuňa 5-0 in 3. liga - West on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Štadión Šk Vrakuňa Bratislava in Bratislava.