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Inter Bratislava vs Vrakuňa — 3. liga - West 2020

Inter Bratislava
Inter Bratislava
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vrakuňa
Vrakuňa
10/15/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 11Športový areál OFK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Inter Bratislava81%
×Draw12%
Vrakuňa7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Bratislava
3.02
Vrakuňa
0.78

Inter Bratislava creates 287% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Inter Bratislava
1.70
Vrakuňa
0.73

allows per match

Inter Bratislava
0.83
Vrakuňa
4.33

finishing

Inter Bratislava+0.00on par
Vrakuňa+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Bratislava ↓

Vrakuňa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Inter Bratislava or draw
93%
Inter Bratislava or Vrakuňa
88%
Draw or Vrakuňa
19%

Winning margin

Inter Bratislava wins by 2+
62%
Vrakuňa wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Inter Bratislava 1+ goals
95%
Inter Bratislava 2+ goals
80%
Inter Bratislava 3+ goals
57%
Vrakuňa 1+ goals
54%
Vrakuňa 2+ goals
18%
Vrakuňa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Inter Bratislava (draw refunded)
92%
Vrakuňa (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Bratislava at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

Vrakuňa away — creates 0.73, concedes 4.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Bratislava attack 1.70 + Vrakuňa defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.02

Vrakuňa attack 0.73 + Inter Bratislava defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Inter Bratislava scores more
81%
level
12%
Vrakuňa scores more
7%

Inter Bratislava at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Inter Bratislava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Inter Bratislava 3–1 Vrakuňa

Inter Bratislava beat Vrakuňa 3-1 in 3. liga - West on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Športový areál OFK in Dunajská Lužná.