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VPS vs KPV-j — Ykkönen 2026

VPS
VPS
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
KPV-j
KPV-j
5/17/2021YkkönenYkkönen · Round 3Elisa Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

VPS53%
×Draw22%
KPV-j24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VPS
1.90
KPV-j
1.21

VPS creates 57% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 84 away

creates per match

VPS
1.92
KPV-j
1.17

allows per match

VPS
1.24
KPV-j
1.87

finishing

VPS+0.00on par
KPV-j+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VPS ↓

KPV-j →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

VPS or draw
76%
VPS or KPV-j
78%
Draw or KPV-j
47%

Winning margin

VPS wins by 2+
31%
KPV-j wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

VPS 1+ goals
85%
VPS 2+ goals
56%
VPS 3+ goals
29%
KPV-j 1+ goals
70%
KPV-j 2+ goals
34%
KPV-j 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

VPS (draw refunded)
69%
KPV-j (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VPS at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.24 · 25 matches

KPV-j away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.87 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VPS attack 1.92 + KPV-j defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.90

KPV-j attack 1.17 + VPS defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

VPS scores more
53%
level
22%
KPV-j scores more
24%

VPS at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "VPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ykkönen: VPS 2–2 KPV-j

VPS and KPV-j drew 2-2 in Ykkönen on May 17, 2021.

The match was played at Elisa Stadion in Vaasa.