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KPV-j vs VPS — Suomen Cup 2018

KPV-j
KPV-j
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
VPS
VPS
5/3/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 4th RoundKokkolan Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

KPV-j17%
×Draw17%
VPS65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KPV-j
1.35
VPS
2.70

VPS creates 100% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 20 away

creates per match

KPV-j
1.60
VPS
4.00

allows per match

KPV-j
1.40
VPS
1.10

finishing

KPV-j+0.00on par
VPS+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KPV-j ↓

VPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

KPV-j or draw
35%
KPV-j or VPS
83%
Draw or VPS
83%

Winning margin

KPV-j wins by 2+
7%
VPS wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

KPV-j 1+ goals
74%
KPV-j 2+ goals
39%
KPV-j 3+ goals
15%
VPS 1+ goals
93%
VPS 2+ goals
75%
VPS 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

KPV-j (draw refunded)
21%
VPS (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KPV-j at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

VPS away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KPV-j attack 1.60 + VPS defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

VPS attack 4.00 + KPV-j defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

KPV-j scores more
17%
level
17%
VPS scores more
65%

VPS at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "VPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KPV-j vs VPS

VPS beat KPV-j 5-1 in Suomen Cup on May 3, 2022.

The match was played at Kokkolan Keskuskenttä in Kokkola.