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VPS vs Haka — Suomen Cup 2018

VPS
VPSadvanced
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Haka
Haka
5/26/2026Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Round of 16Kamratvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

VPS27%
×Draw22%
Haka50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VPS
1.36
Haka
1.92

Haka creates 41% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 25 away

creates per match

VPS
1.93
Haka
2.48

allows per match

VPS
1.36
Haka
0.80

finishing

VPS+0.00on par
Haka+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VPS ↓

Haka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

VPS or draw
50%
VPS or Haka
78%
Draw or Haka
73%

Winning margin

VPS wins by 2+
12%
Haka wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

VPS 1+ goals
74%
VPS 2+ goals
39%
VPS 3+ goals
16%
Haka 1+ goals
85%
Haka 2+ goals
57%
Haka 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

VPS (draw refunded)
35%
Haka (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VPS at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Haka away — creates 2.48, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VPS attack 1.93 + Haka defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.36

Haka attack 2.48 + VPS defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

VPS scores more
27%
level
22%
Haka scores more
50%

Haka at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

VPS 4 – 0 Haka

VPS beat Haka 4-0 in Suomen Cup on May 26, 2026.

The match was played at Kamratvallen in Vaasa.