Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Haka vs VPS — Veikkausliiga 2018

Haka
Haka
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
VPS
VPS
5/31/2025VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 9Tehtaan kenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Haka34%
×Draw25%
VPS41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haka
1.34
VPS
1.48

VPS creates 10% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 97 away

creates per match

Haka
1.32
VPS
1.42

allows per match

Haka
1.54
VPS
1.36

finishing

Haka+0.00on par
VPS+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haka ↓

VPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Haka or draw
59%
Haka or VPS
75%
Draw or VPS
66%

Winning margin

Haka wins by 2+
15%
VPS wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Haka 1+ goals
74%
Haka 2+ goals
39%
Haka 3+ goals
15%
VPS 1+ goals
77%
VPS 2+ goals
43%
VPS 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Haka (draw refunded)
46%
VPS (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haka at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.54 · 80 matches

VPS away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.36 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haka attack 1.32 + VPS defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.34

VPS attack 1.42 + Haka defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Haka scores more
34%
level
25%
VPS scores more
41%

VPS at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "VPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Haka 2 – 1 VPS

Haka beat VPS 2-1 in Veikkausliiga on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Tehtaan kenttä in Valkeakoski.