VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv — Persha Liga 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 25+ matches
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka27%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv45%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv creates 37% more chances
Season form · 25 home / 42 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka ↓
Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 42 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka attack 0.88 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.21 + VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Metalist 1925 Kharkiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Bukovyna
Livyi Bereh
Chornomorets
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
Inhulets
Metal Kharkiv
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
Yarud Mariupol'
Probiy Horodenka
UCSA
Prykarpattia
Nyva Ternopil
Chernihiv
Vorskla Poltava
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
Metalurh ZaporizhyaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka host Metalist 1925 Kharkiv on Wednesday, 25 November 2020 at 11:00. The match is part of the Persha Liga 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv beat VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 1-0 in Persha Liga on November 25, 2020.
Goals: V. Dmytrenko (84').
The match was played at Stadion Meteor in Dnipropetrovs'k.