Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1–2 VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

Y. Batyushin 26'

B. Shmygelskyi 90+1'

O. Belyaev 11'

6/12/2021

Persha Liga · Round 30Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv54%

×Draw25%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metalist 1925 KharkivExpected goals in this matchVPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.90

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

1.59

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

0.90

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv creates 77% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 25 away

1.50

creates per match

0.96

0.83

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

1.50

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

0.96

allows per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

0.83

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv+0.00on par

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ↓

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or draw

79%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

75%

Draw or VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

46%

Winning margin

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+

28%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals

80%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals

47%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals

21%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 1+ goals

59%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 2+ goals

23%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)

72%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.83 · 42 matches

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.50 + VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.59

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka attack 0.96 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more

54%

level

25%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka scores more

21%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Metalist 1925 Kharkiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

O. Belyaev

26'

Y. Batyushin

29'

S. Shapovalov← L. Koberidze

46'

D. Ndukwe← A. Savin

46'

S. Chenbay← Y. Tkachuk

75'

B. Shmygelskyi← I. Budnyak

80'

I. Kovalenko← A. Zapadnya

80'

M. Storozhenko← Y. Batyushin

80'

T. Sukhar← P. Ksyonz

86'

D. Shevchenko← I. Tyshchenko

88'

Y. Yampol← O. Golodyuk

90'

O. Krasov← O. Belyaev

90+1'

B. Shmygelskyi

Metalist

VPK-Ahro

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: V. Kryventsov

46'▲D. Ndukwe←▼A. Savin

46'▲S. Chenbay←▼Y. Tkachuk

80'▲I. Kovalenko←▼A. Zapadnya

80'▲M. Storozhenko←▼Y. Batyushin

88'▲Y. Yampol←▼O. Golodyuk

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv substitutes

NdukweChenbayKovalenkoStorozhenkoYampolKholodDyakovRezepovPetsKovalenkoTsvirenko

Manager: S. Solovyev

29'▲S. Shapovalov←▼L. Koberidze

75'▲B. Shmygelskyi←▼I. Budnyak

80'▲T. Sukhar←▼P. Ksyonz

86'▲D. Shevchenko←▼I. Tyshchenko

90'▲O. Krasov←▼O. Belyaev

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka substitutes

ShapovalovShmygelskyiSukharShevchenkoKrasovPiddubnyiShelikhovZozulyaLyashenko

Match Recap: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka beat Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2-1 in Persha Liga on June 12, 2021.

Goals: O. Belyaev (11'), Y. Batyushin (26'), B. Shmygelskyi (90+1').

The match was played at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist in Kharkiv.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka — Persha Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka